The second quarter closes today, and the headline numbers suggest a snoozer. Don’t be fooled. EUR/USD ends Q2 at 1.1438, down modestly from its late-March levels. USD/JPY closes near 161.45, up a few percent. GBP/USD at 1.3353 is roughly where it started April. On the surface: range-bound markets, nothing to see. But the quarter’s real […]
With June nearly closed, it’s a natural moment to zoom out and score the first half of 2026 in FX. The winners The US dollar, first and unambiguously. EUR/USD ends June near 1.1438, down from around 1.17 in early May and trending lower since spring. USD/JPY at 161.45 is up nearly 2 yen from where […]
After five weeks of almost uninterrupted strength, the dollar rally is showing its first honest signs of fatigue. EUR/USD has based around 1.1386 after touching 1.1325 last week, refusing to make new lows despite repeated tests. USD/JPY has stalled at 161.8, unable to extend beyond the mid-June highs. GBP/USD found buyers at 1.3143 and has […]
USD/JPY closed Tuesday at 161.79 — the highest finish of 2026 — and the distance between what Japan wants and what Japan can do has never looked wider. The problem in one paragraph Japan’s economy needs a weaker yen to keep exports competitive and inflation positive. But at 161, the currency’s decline is feeding import […]
The pound finally broke. GBP/USD plunged to 1.3143 on Monday — its lowest level since March — before stabilizing around 1.3200. From its mid-June levels near 1.3440, sterling has shed 300 pips in five sessions, and the speed of the move suggests forced liquidation rather than thoughtful repricing. What killed the sterling trade Three things, […]