USD/JPY is back above 159, and the reason is as old as the hills: yield differentials. The pair has been climbing for three straight weeks — from 156.85 in early May to 159.3 by Thursday — and the pattern is familiar to anyone who traded the yen over the past two years. When the gap […]
4,363. Gold hit that number on Wednesday — its lowest price since October — before rebounding sharply to close at 4,499. A 3% intraday round trip of that size, on rising volume, is what capitulation often looks like in its first act. The case that the low is in Capitulation selloffs share a fingerprint: a […]
Every FX blow-up of the past decade — the franc de-peg, the yen squeezes, the pound flash crash — shares one feature. The trade that exploded was the trade everyone loved. Crowded trades aren’t dangerous because they’re wrong. They’re dangerous because everyone is positioned the same way, which means there’s nobody left to buy (or […]
The yen’s early-May reprieve is officially over. USD/JPY closed Friday at 159.35 and touched 159.75 intraweek, fully erasing the correction that took the pair down to 155.05 just three weeks ago. If you’re scoring at home, that’s a 470-pip round trip, and the message is unambiguous: every dip in this pair is still being bought. […]
A short public-holiday week in the US is upon us, and the FX market has a message: don’t trust anything that happens in the next four sessions. With American desks thinned out, liquidity drops sharply, and thin markets do strange things — quiet pairs suddenly move 80 pips on a single order, technical levels break […]