Bitcoin Above $78,000: The August Comeback Nobody Predicted
$78,000.
Bitcoin is trading near that level — up 25% in August and 35% from the July 1 low of $57,748. The comeback has been so complete that the May crash to $72,436 and the June collapse to $58,076 now look, on the chart, like a single violent correction in an intact bull market. The question is whether they were.
The case that the bull is back
The evidence has mounted steadily. Spot-led buying (ETF inflows at their strongest since April), leverage discipline (open interest remains half the May peak), a repaired chart (the $70,500 pivot reclaimed two weeks ago and never retested), and improving macro (stalled dollar, record equities, returning risk appetite). In past cycles, recoveries with these characteristics — patient, spot-driven, leverage-light — went on to new highs more often than not.
The case for caution
September. The month has been crypto’s kryptonite repeatedly, and the rally is entering it overbought on short-term measures. Also note what hasn’t happened: bitcoin has not reclaimed $82,800, the May peak. Until it does, the structure is a lower high — the defining feature of corrections, not new legs. The bulls need to finish the job.
Levels
$82,800 above; below, $74,000 then $70,500. The market has done the hard work of rebuilding from $57,700; the last 6% is the proof. A September close above $82,800 would put the all-time highs back in play. A rejection there, into the month’s notorious volatility, would set up the year’s most important trade in the other direction.
Respect the rally. Verify the breakout.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Trading FX, commodities, equities and crypto carries substantial risk of loss.
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