Quarter-End Flows Hit the Euro: EUR/USD Slides to 1.1327
The quarter is closing, and corporate treasury desks are having their say.
EUR/USD dropped to 1.1327 on Tuesday — matching the June low to the fraction — as quarter-end rebalancing flows compounded the pair’s existing downtrend. The final days of a quarter reliably produce chunky, price-insensitive flows as multinationals true up their hedges, and in a one-way market like this one, those flows only push in the direction prices were already going.
The technical picture darkens
1.1325 has now been touched three times: in June, in mid-September, and now. Support that gets tested repeatedly eventually breaks — the only question is whether it’s this week or next month. A weekly close below 1.1325 would be the cleanest trend signal in the pair since June, opening a measured move toward 1.1200 and putting the 2025 lows on the map.
The dollar’s breadth is remarkable. USD/JPY at 157.56 has recovered its composure, GBP/USD at 1.3264 is stuck in its breakdown zone, and even the commodity currencies are making fresh lows. The last time the dollar commanded the market this completely was April.
One caution
Quarter-end flows cut both ways and vanish within days. If EUR/USD bounces hard early next week, it may be nothing more than the flow season ending — not a trend change. The trend-change test remains 1.1480 on a closing basis. Below that, rallies are for selling; above it, the shorts need to reassess.
The third quarter ends with the dollar up roughly 3% on the euro in September alone. The bears had their August. The bulls are having everything else.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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