Euro Tests 1.1580 Support as the May Fade Continues
1.1577.
That’s the low EUR/USD printed on Tuesday, and it matters more than a random number. It’s the weakest level since the pair’s April base, and a clean break would open a move toward 1.1500 that I suspect would accelerate quickly.
The anatomy of the decline
Go back three weeks: EUR/USD was at 1.1779. Since then it’s been a series of lower highs — 1.1776, 1.1729, 1.1686 — each rally weaker than the last. That’s distribution, not noise. Someone has been quietly selling euros at every opportunity, and the dip buyers who showed up so reliably in April haven’t appeared this time.
The fundamentals give them little reason to. Eurozone growth data keeps disappointing, and the interest-rate gap with the US isn’t closing the way the optimists predicted in January.
Where the buyers might show up
If you’re looking for a level to trade against, watch 1.1530–1.1550, the March congestion zone. A bounce from there would keep the pair range-bound for another month. But if the euro closes the week below 1.1577, I’ll be honest: the path of least resistance turns meaningfully lower, and 1.1400 becomes a matter of time, not debate.
The dollar side of the equation isn’t helping either. USD/JPY’s grind higher — now near 158.9 — shows the greenback retains a bid even when US data is merely average. In this environment, mediocre American numbers aren’t enough to weaken the dollar. You need genuinely bad ones.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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