The third quarter is officially in the books. Here’s the scoreboard. The dollar: winner, again After a shaky July and a genuinely bad August, the greenback closed the quarter with a vengeance. Against the euro, September’s 3% rally erased two months of losses and then some — the Fed’s own data shows the euro at […]
The quarter is closing, and corporate treasury desks are having their say. EUR/USD dropped to 1.1327 on Tuesday — matching the June low to the fraction — as quarter-end rebalancing flows compounded the pair’s existing downtrend. The final days of a quarter reliably produce chunky, price-insensitive flows as multinationals true up their hedges, and in […]
Two trading days remain in the third quarter, and the final week of a quarter is its own beast — worth understanding, because it distorts everything it touches. The mechanics of quarter-end flows Three flows converge in the final sessions. Pension rebalancing: a quarter of strong equity gains (US stocks up smartly in Q3) forces […]
The fourth quarter starts this week, and the dollar enters it in its strongest position of the year. Here are the four scenarios that will decide whether that lasts. Scenario one: US soft landing confirmed (dollar mildly lower) If US growth cools just enough to bring the Fed back toward the table without alarming anyone, […]
Sunday chartbook — a quick map of the levels that matter into the week’s final stretch. FX EUR/USD: 1.1354 is the floor (June/September triple-tested); below it, 1.1325 then 1.1200. Resistance: 1.1480, the breakdown that started the current leg. USD/JPY: 152.90 below is the year’s most important line; 158.99 above is the recovery ceiling. GBP/USD: 1.3210 […]