Five hundred pips in four sessions. That’s what the yen just did to the dollar. USD/JPY plunged from 160.20 at the end of August to a low of 152.90 on Monday, the fastest decline in the pair since the market turbulence of 2024. It has since stabilized around 157.6, but the damage to the carry […]
Big moves change markets in ways that outlast the move itself. The yen’s 870-pip round trip this week has reset positioning, repriced risk, and created a new trading landscape. Here’s how I’d navigate it. Rule one: respect the new range until proven otherwise USD/JPY is trading around 157.6, roughly in the middle of its new […]
Gold’s decline to the low 4,100s has produced a familiar chorus: “the fundamentals are still bullish!” Maybe. But if you can’t tell the difference between a fundamental repricing and forced liquidation, you’re flying blind — so let’s walk through it. Sign one: who’s selling In a fundamental repricing, the sellers are long-term holders changing their […]
Every FX blow-up of the past decade — the franc de-peg, the yen squeezes, the pound flash crash — shares one feature. The trade that exploded was the trade everyone loved. Crowded trades aren’t dangerous because they’re wrong. They’re dangerous because everyone is positioned the same way, which means there’s nobody left to buy (or […]