EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1404, and the valuation crowd is getting loud. On purchasing-power parity, the euro is historically cheap. On fair-value models, it’s 8–10% undervalued. So is 1.14 a generational buying opportunity? Maybe. But let’s be honest about what valuation does and doesn’t do. Valuation is a compass, not a clock Undervalued currencies […]
The S&P 500 opens the second half parked at 7,490 — up 0.1% for July, up modestly for the quarter, and completely directionless for a month. The next catalyst arrives next week, when the big banks kick off earnings season. What’s expected Consensus calls for mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year earnings growth — solid, but a deceleration […]
The first week of the second half looks a lot like the last week of the first: the dollar consolidating its June gains while the market decides whether the trend has one more leg in it. EUR/USD is parked at 1.1404, having spent a week oscillating between 1.1387 and 1.1463. USD/JPY at 161.88 is pressing […]
We’re halfway through 2026, which makes this the traditional moment for an honest portfolio review. Not a prediction exercise — an allocation exercise. Here’s a framework. Start with what the first half taught The H1 scoreboard: US stocks up mid-single-digits, gold down sharply, bitcoin down 18%, and the dollar up nearly everywhere. If your portfolio […]
4,000. Gold spent last week circling the most watched round number in the commodity world, dipping to 3,963 before recovering to close at 4,082. The metal has now gone almost three weeks without making a new low — the longest stabilization since the April peak — and technicians are starting to whisper the word “base.” […]