Euro Breaks Below 1.15 as June Selloff Deepens
The euro’s slide is no longer a drift. It’s a trend.
EUR/USD ended the week near 1.1459, down from 1.1635 at the start of June — a decline of roughly 1.8% in two and a half weeks, with the pair slicing through 1.15 like it wasn’t even there. On Wednesday alone, the pair fell from 1.1610 to close near 1.1507. That’s a 100-pip day on a major pair in a summer session. Someone big was selling.
Three reasons this is happening
First, growth differentials. The US economy keeps surprising to the upside while eurozone data has been stuck in neutral for months. Second, rate expectations — the market is increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are headed in opposite directions, and FX is just pricing that in. Third, momentum itself. Once a major pair breaks a big round number like 1.15, systematic sellers and trend-following funds add to the move automatically.
The pound isn’t being spared either. GBP/USD dropped from around 1.3430 to 1.3202 this week — its weakest close since late June. Sterling had been the resilient one in G10 for most of the year, so when it cracks like this, it usually signals a broad dollar bid rather than anything UK-specific.
How far could this go?
Looking at the chart, the next meaningful support zone for EUR/USD sits near 1.1350–1.1400, where the pair based in June 2025. Below that, 1.1200. None of this is guaranteed — a hot eurozone inflation print or a soft US jobs report could trigger a violent squeeze, because short-euro positioning is getting stretched.
But until the data changes, the trend is your friend, and the trend is down.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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