The dollar’s autumn rampage just hit its first real speed bump. After five straight weeks of gains that carried EUR/USD from 1.15 to the edge of 1.11, the greenback stalled on Monday — and the euro pounced. The pair dipped to 1.1114 in early trade, its lowest since early 2025, before buyers stormed back and […]
1.1157. That’s where EUR/USD closed on Friday — the lowest finish since early 2025 — and it opens this week in genuinely uncharted territory for anyone who started trading after 2022. The pair has now fallen roughly 4.9% from its mid-May high of 1.1743, and the decline is accelerating, not slowing. How we got here […]
Sunday preview of a week where corporate America goes head-to-head with the currency market. Earnings season opens The big banks report starting Tuesday, kicking off the third-quarter season. Expectations are moderate — single-digit growth — which paradoxically raises the bar: after two consecutive seasons of beats, the market now treats outperformance as the default. Guidance […]
Quick Friday wrap before the weekend. The dollar’s October has been relentless. EUR/USD is trading near 1.116, down from 1.1255 at the start of the month, and closed the week at 1.1157 — the lowest weekly close of 2026. GBP/USD tested 1.3186 before recovering slightly to 1.3211, still pinned against the 1.32 line we’ve been […]
With the dollar up sharply again and the commentariat split between “US exceptionalism” and “global dollar shortage,” it’s worth stepping back and checking what the data actually supports. Factor one: the rate gap (still the main engine) The US–Germany two-year yield spread remains the single best explanatory variable for EUR/USD, and it has moved relentlessly […]