Euro Slides Through 1.14 as the Selloff Enters Its Third Week
1.1375.
EUR/USD closed Wednesday at its lowest level since early 2025, extending a decline that has now run for fifteen straight sessions with barely a pause. The pair has lost 3.4% from the August high of 1.1712, and the selling shows no signs of exhaustion.
The anatomy of a trend
Look at the pattern: bounce, fail at a lower level, break to new lows, repeat. Last week’s ceiling was 1.1556; this week’s is 1.1481. Each recovery is weaker and shorter-lived than the one before — the classic signature of institutional distribution. Someone very large is reducing euro exposure methodically, and nobody large is stepping in to absorb it.
The drivers are well-rehearsed by now: US economic resilience, eurozone stagnation, rate divergence. What deserves fresh attention is the flow side. Corporate hedging activity — European exporters buying dollars forward — reportedly picked up significantly this month, adding a steady, price-insensitive seller to the market on top of the speculative community.
What’s left below
1.1354 (the week’s low so far) is immediate support, then 1.1325 — the level that held in June and September. Below that, the chart opens toward 1.1200 and ultimately the 2025 lows near 1.0900. It’s a long way down, but nobody thought 1.14 would break this fast either.
The bullish counterpoint remains positioning: shorts are now stretched, and stretched shorts squeeze. But squeezes in downtrends are gifts to sellers — chances to get short at better prices. Until EUR/USD reclaims 1.1480, that’s how I’d treat any bounce.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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