Euro Cracks 1.12: The Breakdown Nobody Wanted to Believe
1.1157.
EUR/USD closed Friday at its lowest level of 2026, completing a collapse of nearly 6 cents from the August high of 1.1712. The pair broke 1.12 with authority, and the move below has the kind of follow-through that turns corrections into trends.
Where the buyers went
They didn’t go anywhere — they were simply never there in size. The August rally was built on dollar fatigue, not euro conviction, and it showed: every pullback found fewer buyers than the one before. When the dollar’s bid returned in September, there was no foundation underneath. The June and September lows at 1.1325 offered a speed bump, not a floor.
The macro story writes itself. US data keeps printing firm, the Fed keeps its options open, and Europe keeps disappointing. At some point the market stops asking “when does the euro recover” and starts asking “how low is fair” — and by the positioning data, that transition happened about three weeks ago.
What’s below
1.1100 is the next psychological marker, then 1.0900–1.1000, the zone that capped the pair through much of 2025. Beyond that lie levels last seen in 2022. None of this is a prediction — it’s just what the chart offers when the supports beneath give way.
For shorts, the discipline is the same as always: trail, don’t target. For the brave contrarians waiting to buy “value”: valuation said the euro was cheap at 1.15, at 1.14, and at 1.13. It’s cheaper now. Cheap is not a catalyst. Wait for one.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
Leave a Reply