Friday Wrap: The Dollar’s October Continues, Euro Eyes 1.11
Quick Friday wrap before the weekend.
The dollar’s October has been relentless. EUR/USD is trading near 1.116, down from 1.1255 at the start of the month, and closed the week at 1.1157 — the lowest weekly close of 2026. GBP/USD tested 1.3186 before recovering slightly to 1.3211, still pinned against the 1.32 line we’ve been watching all week. Only the yen resisted: USD/JPY at 158.57 is up but well-contained.
The week’s defining feature: no pullbacks
In a healthy trend, you get bounces — 50-pip recoveries that let latecomers in and shake out weak shorts. This week offered none. EUR/USD fell in a near-straight line, which means the market is one-sided and the shorts who covered in September are being punished for their doubt. One-way markets feel great until they reverse, and they reverse without warning.
What to watch next week
The calendar delivers the usual mid-month US data barrage, which in this positioning environment is high-stakes. A strong print and the market starts talking openly about EUR/USD at 1.10. A weak one, and the crowded dollar longs finally get their excuse to trim — with 1.1300 the first target on any squeeze.
Also on the docket: the Bank of England’s rate decision. The bank is expected to hold, but sterling’s fate rests less on the decision than on the vote count and the guidance. A hint that the next move could be a cut would test 1.3200 immediately.
Weekend levels
EUR/USD: 1.1152 support, 1.1276 resistance. GBP/USD: 1.3186 support, 1.3287 resistance. USD/JPY: 157.60 support, 158.75 resistance. Good weekend — next week matters.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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