Everyone trading USD/JPY right now is, in some sense, trading their view on the Bank of Japan. So let’s step back from the price action and look at what Japan’s data actually says. The case for patience Japan’s core inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target but is no longer accelerating. Wage growth — the […]
The yen’s comeback is no longer a one-week wonder. USD/JPY has fallen from 159.77 at the end of August to below 157 this week, touching 154.06 in Tuesday’s session. That’s a 570-pip drop in three days, and it makes August–September the first sustained yen rally since early 2024. The carry trade, rebuilt so carefully after […]
September arrives with every major market extended, every central bank on deck, and a calendar loaded enough to move all of them. Here are the five things that matter most. 1. The Fed meeting The single biggest event. The market wants clarity on the first rate cut; the Fed wants optionality. The gap between those […]
Every September, the same thing happens: summer liquidity evaporates, real volume returns, and the FX market remembers how to move. Traders who ignore this seasonal rhythm get run over by it, year after year. The statistical case Historically, September is the most volatile month of the year for G10 FX. The average monthly range in […]
The monthly close is in, and the scorecard is unambiguous: August belonged to the dollar bears. EUR/USD ends August at 1.1589, up from 1.1544 in July and a massive 2.6% above the June close of 1.1300. GBP/USD closes at 1.3540, its second-highest monthly finish of the year. USD/JPY at 160.12 is the only major where […]