The quarter is closing, and corporate treasury desks are having their say. EUR/USD dropped to 1.1327 on Tuesday — matching the June low to the fraction — as quarter-end rebalancing flows compounded the pair’s existing downtrend. The final days of a quarter reliably produce chunky, price-insensitive flows as multinationals true up their hedges, and in […]
The fourth quarter starts this week, and the dollar enters it in its strongest position of the year. Here are the four scenarios that will decide whether that lasts. Scenario one: US soft landing confirmed (dollar mildly lower) If US growth cools just enough to bring the Fed back toward the table without alarming anyone, […]
Friday wrap after a week that confirmed what the previous two suggested: this is a full-blown dollar move, and it isn’t finished. EUR/USD closed at 1.1378, down 100 pips. GBP/USD at 1.3229, down 160. USD/JPY at 157.46, recovering steadily from the Monday panic low. Three pairs, one direction. When the dollar moves like this — […]
1.1375. EUR/USD closed Wednesday at its lowest level since early 2025, extending a decline that has now run for fifteen straight sessions with barely a pause. The pair has lost 3.4% from the August high of 1.1712, and the selling shows no signs of exhaustion. The anatomy of a trend Look at the pattern: bounce, […]
Remember when sterling was the market’s favorite currency? That was three weeks ago. GBP/USD has collapsed from 1.3552 at the start of September to 1.3229, erasing the entire August rally and then some. The speed of the reversal is a textbook lesson in why relative-value stories are only as good as the regime they live […]