GBP/USD is sitting at 1.3211, and the level directly below — 1.3200 — has become the most important round number in the majors right now. Why 1.32 matters so much Three reasons. First, it’s been tested repeatedly: 1.3210–1.3211 marked the lows in both late September and early October, and each test has held — so […]
With the dollar up sharply again and the commentariat split between “US exceptionalism” and “global dollar shortage,” it’s worth stepping back and checking what the data actually supports. Factor one: the rate gap (still the main engine) The US–Germany two-year yield spread remains the single best explanatory variable for EUR/USD, and it has moved relentlessly […]
1.1157. EUR/USD closed Friday at its lowest level of 2026, completing a collapse of nearly 6 cents from the August high of 1.1712. The pair broke 1.12 with authority, and the move below has the kind of follow-through that turns corrections into trends. Where the buyers went They didn’t go anywhere — they were simply […]
The third quarter of 2026 is in the books, and the scoreboard is unambiguous: the US dollar beat everything. Look at the numbers. The Federal Reserve’s own H.10 data shows the euro buying just 1.1259 dollars as of October 2 — down from 1.1367 a week earlier and miles below the 1.17 handle where it […]
The third quarter is officially in the books. Here’s the scoreboard. The dollar: winner, again After a shaky July and a genuinely bad August, the greenback closed the quarter with a vengeance. Against the euro, September’s 3% rally erased two months of losses and then some — the Fed’s own data shows the euro at […]