The yen’s 700-pip round trip over five weeks isn’t just a G10 story. Some of the biggest spillover is landing in emerging markets, and it’s worth understanding the transmission channel because it runs in both directions. The carry triangle For years, the dominant EM trade has been a triangle: borrow yen cheaply, buy higher-yielding EM […]
Five hundred pips in four sessions. That’s what the yen just did to the dollar. USD/JPY plunged from 160.20 at the end of August to a low of 152.90 on Monday, the fastest decline in the pair since the market turbulence of 2024. It has since stabilized around 157.6, but the damage to the carry […]
It happened again — and this time, the market can’t pretend it’s a one-off. USD/JPY crashed on Monday to a low of 152.90, exactly matching July’s panic bottom, before rebounding to the mid-154s. The speed of the move — roughly 600 pips from Friday’s levels at one point — marks the second violent yen surge […]
Friday wrap, and it’s been a week worth remembering. USD/JPY closed at 156.20, down from 159.77 a week ago, after plumbing 154.06 intraday on Thursday. That’s the second major downside break in eight weeks, and the character of this one worries the carry community more than July’s did. July was a shock — violent, unexplained, […]
Everyone trading USD/JPY right now is, in some sense, trading their view on the Bank of Japan. So let’s step back from the price action and look at what Japan’s data actually says. The case for patience Japan’s core inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target but is no longer accelerating. Wage growth — the […]