Euro Finds Buyers at 1.15: Dead-Cat or Double Bottom?
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.1528 and has crawled back to 1.1536, holding the 1.15 handle after last week’s slide. The question every euro-watcher is asking: is this a genuine bottom, or just the pause before the next leg down?
The bull case
1.1515 is now a tested level — the pair bounced there in early June and again on Friday. Double bottoms are one of the most reliable patterns in FX when they work, and the euro is deeply oversold on short-term momentum measures after a two-week, 200-pip decline. A squeeze back toward 1.16 wouldn’t be shocking at all.
The fundamentals offer one straw to grasp: eurozone data, while weak, has stopped getting worse. Bad news that’s no longer getting worse is sometimes enough to stabilize a currency.
The bear case
Rallies in downtrends are for selling until proven otherwise, and this pair has produced a full month of lower highs. The sellers who drove it from 1.1776 haven’t been flushed; they’ve been patient. Until EUR/USD reclaims 1.1580 — the June 5 breakdown level — every bounce is suspect.
Also note what the cross is saying. EUR/JPY held near 184.7, well off its highs, showing the euro isn’t attracting buyers against anything except a fading dollar.
My read
I lean bearish but I’m not chasing. If 1.1515 breaks with any conviction, 1.1420 comes fast. If it holds and the pair reclaims 1.1580, the range trade is back on. Either way, the middle of this range — where we are now — is no place to build a position.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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