Gold Starts the Week at $4,187: $4,200 Resistance Back in Play
Gold isn’t waiting for anyone’s permission to rally.
The metal opened the week at $4,185 and pushed to $4,211 in Monday’s early trade before settling at $4,187 — its fourth consecutive session above $4,100 and its strongest start to a week since the August peak. The $4,200 handle, which capped the metal through most of last week, is now being tested, and each test is coming with less resistance than the one before.
How we got here
It’s worth rehearsing the sequence, because it’s been one of the cleaner technical stories of the year. Gold crashed from April’s record of $4,918 to a June low of $3,955 — a 20% correction that purged speculative length completely. It then built a base above $4,000 through the summer, broke down again in September under dollar pressure, and found its floor at $4,091–$4,100, a zone that has now been defended four separate times. Last week’s rebound from that floor ran straight into $4,200, and the metal has spent the last three sessions absorbing the supply there.
Absorption is the keyword. In each of those sessions, gold touched resistance, pulled back mildly, and closed near the top of its range on firm volume. Sellers at $4,200 are being met by buyers who don’t flinch. That pattern — repeated tests of resistance with shrinking pullbacks — is how ceilings become floors.
The fundamental tailwinds are aligning
Three things are different now compared to the failed August rally. First, the dollar: the greenback’s worst week since August removed the metal’s primary headwind, and Monday’s pause in the dollar isn’t denting gold — a good sign of underlying strength. Second, flows: gold ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive sessions, the longest streak since the August peak, and central-bank buying reports remain robust underneath. Third, the calendar: the market is entering the October-to-February window that has historically been gold’s strongest season, the stretch that produced both of the last two major rallies.
Overlay the macro picture and the case strengthens further. Equities are two weeks into a correction with no clear bottom, real yields have stopped rising, and the Fed’s language has softened just enough to keep a year-end cut on the table. Every one of those is a classic gold tailwind, and for the first time since spring, they’re all pointing the same direction at once.
The road from here
Above $4,200, the technical map is remarkably clean. First stop: $4,259, the September breakdown point. Beyond that, $4,400, then the August recovery high at $4,558, and ultimately the April record at $4,918 — still 15% away, but no longer an unreasonable destination for a metal with this much momentum, seasonality, and structural demand.
The risk case deserves honesty: a hot round of US data midweek could revive the dollar and send gold back to test $4,100 for a fifth time. But four successful defenses have established that zone as the market’s consensus floor, and each successful test makes the next one stronger. The asymmetry favors the bulls: roughly 90 dollars of defined risk against hundreds of dollars of open runway.
Levels for the week: $4,211 and $4,259 above; $4,120 and $4,091 below. Gold has spent six months paying for its spring excesses. The bill looks settled.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Trading FX, commodities, equities and crypto carries substantial risk of loss.
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