USD/JPY closed Monday at 163.61, less than 40 pips from the April spike high of 163.98, and the fingerprints of an overextended trade are everywhere. The evidence file Positioning data shows speculative yen shorts at their most extreme since the 2024 carry blowup. Options markets show investors paying up for yen crash protection — a […]
163.61. That’s where USD/JPY closed Friday, and the round number just above it — 164 — is one of the most politically sensitive levels in all of FX. Every trader on the planet knows it. So does the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The setup as it stands The pair has risen 100 yen since April, […]
The pound keeps doing what it has done all year: recovering faster than anyone expects. GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3446, up from 1.3351, having touched 1.3545 midweek — within touching distance of the June highs. From the late-June low of 1.3143, that’s a 3% rally in three weeks, and it’s happened against a broadly […]
USD/JPY at 161 has made “the carry trade” the most cited and least understood phrase in finance. Let’s fix that in five minutes. The mechanics A carry trade borrows money where interest rates are low and invests it where rates are high. Japan’s rates sit near zero; America’s are meaningfully higher. So a fund borrows […]
The pound keeps ruining the bears’ summer. GBP/USD pushed to 1.343 this week, extending a recovery that has carried sterling from 1.3143 in late June to within striking distance of the 1.35 handle it last touched in May. Against a surging dollar, that’s an achievement — and against the euro, it’s a rout, with EUR/GBP […]