Q2 in Review: Stocks Up, Gold Down, Crypto Crushed
The second quarter closed on Tuesday. Here’s the cross-asset scoreboard, because the story it tells is more coherent than any single market’s narrative.
The numbers
Stocks: the S&P 500 ended June at 7,499, up about 1% for a choppy quarter that featured a record high in May (7,599), a June correction to 7,238, and a late-quarter recovery. Gold: down 10.4% — the metal’s worst quarter in years — closing June at 4,039 after peaking above 4,900 in April. Bitcoin: the quarter’s disaster, down 18% with a June low of $58,076. And the dollar: up against everything, with USD/JPY finishing June at 161.5 and EUR/USD at 1.141.
One force, four markets
Every one of these moves traces back to the same source: the repricing of US monetary policy. The market entered 2026 pricing aggressive Fed cuts; it exits the first half pricing none. Higher-for-longer US rates lift the dollar, squeeze gold (which competes with yield), drain crypto (the ultimate liquidity sponge), and leave stocks wobbling between “strong economy” and “expensive money.” When four asset classes tell one story, believe the story, not your favorite asset.
What Q3 typically does
Third quarters are historically kind to stocks, mixed for gold, and seasonally soft for crypto until late summer. Positioning suggests the market is already leaning that way — equity dip-buyers remain confident, gold’s speculative longs have been purged, and crypto’s leverage has reset. The second half begins with cleaner positioning than the first half ended with. That’s something.
As always, the Fed’s next meeting is the hinge. Everything above is a subplot.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Trading FX, commodities, equities and crypto carries substantial risk of loss.
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