Record Territory: S&P 500 Tops 7,800
7,816.
The S&P 500 touched that level on Wednesday — its first foray above 7,800 — before settling near 7,780. The rally that began at the June correction low of 7,238 has now delivered 8% in eleven weeks, and the character of the advance keeps improving.
Breadth is the headline
Unlike the narrow megacap-led rallies of earlier this year, the current advance is broad. Equal-weight indices are keeping pace with the cap-weighted benchmark, small caps have joined in, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day averages sits above 75%. Sustained rallies need participation; this one has it.
Earnings season did the heavy lifting. Growth came in above consensus, margin fears didn’t materialize, and — crucially — management commentary about the second half stayed constructive despite the strong dollar. The market’s biggest fear (a dollar-driven earnings recession) receded.
The risks, honestly priced
Valuation is stretched by most measures; the forward multiple leaves little room for disappointment. September is the calendar’s most volatile month. And the macro crosscurrents — a stalling dollar, a wounded carry trade, a Fed on hold — could resolve violently in either direction.
None of that argues for selling strength in an uptrend with breadth. It argues for honest position sizing and stop discipline. Above 7,600, momentum targets 8,000 — a number that would have sounded absurd in April and now sounds inevitable, which is itself worth a moment’s humility.
Trend: up. Breadth: confirming. Plan: trail stops, let it run, respect the calendar.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Trading FX, commodities, equities and crypto carries substantial risk of loss.
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