Two trading days remain in the third quarter, and the final week of a quarter is its own beast — worth understanding, because it distorts everything it touches. The mechanics of quarter-end flows Three flows converge in the final sessions. Pension rebalancing: a quarter of strong equity gains (US stocks up smartly in Q3) forces […]
With August closing on Friday, positioning for September deserves more thought than usual — because this September carries an unusually heavy load. The calendar stack Five events dominate. One: the Federal Reserve meeting, where the market will parse every word for timing on the first cut. Two: the US employment report, the single most market-moving […]
USD/JPY closed Monday at 163.61, less than 40 pips from the April spike high of 163.98, and the fingerprints of an overextended trade are everywhere. The evidence file Positioning data shows speculative yen shorts at their most extreme since the 2024 carry blowup. Options markets show investors paying up for yen crash protection — a […]