The Week Ahead: Earnings Season Meets a Runaway Dollar
Sunday preview of a week where corporate America goes head-to-head with the currency market.
Earnings season opens
The big banks report starting Tuesday, kicking off the third-quarter season. Expectations are moderate — single-digit growth — which paradoxically raises the bar: after two consecutive seasons of beats, the market now treats outperformance as the default. Guidance will matter more than prints, and the key question each CEO faces is the same: what is the strong dollar doing to your overseas earnings? With EUR/USD at 1.116 (the year’s weakest euro) and the yen whipsawed, the translation drag is the largest since 2022. Companies that hedged will shine; those that didn’t will guide down.
The dollar’s run
The greenback enters the week at its strongest level of the year against the euro, and positioning data says the trend is crowded but intact. The week’s US data (CPI on Thursday, retail sales Friday) can extend it or trigger the first serious squeeze since August. A hot CPI print sends the dollar toward the euro’s 2025 lows; a soft one opens a 200-pip air pocket in EUR/USD that would ripple straight into the earnings narrative.
Cross-asset levels into the week
S&P 500: 7,700 support, 7,844 resistance. Gold: 4,091 support, 4,259 resistance. Bitcoin: $80,000 support, $84,800 resistance. EUR/USD: 1.1152 support, 1.1276 resistance.
Playbook: half size into CPI, let earnings set the equity tone, and respect the fact that October — the market’s most volatile month historically — has only just begun.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Trading FX, commodities, equities and crypto carries substantial risk of loss.
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