USD/JPY is trading at 158.57, up gently for the week, and the surface is calm. Underneath, I’m not so sure. The calm before patterns After two violent episodes in three months — July’s crash from 164 and September’s plunge to 152.90 — the pair has spent two weeks in a tight 157.6–158.8 range. Implied volatility […]
GBP/USD is sitting at 1.3211, and the level directly below — 1.3200 — has become the most important round number in the majors right now. Why 1.32 matters so much Three reasons. First, it’s been tested repeatedly: 1.3210–1.3211 marked the lows in both late September and early October, and each test has held — so […]
With the dollar up sharply again and the commentariat split between “US exceptionalism” and “global dollar shortage,” it’s worth stepping back and checking what the data actually supports. Factor one: the rate gap (still the main engine) The US–Germany two-year yield spread remains the single best explanatory variable for EUR/USD, and it has moved relentlessly […]
1.1157. EUR/USD closed Friday at its lowest level of 2026, completing a collapse of nearly 6 cents from the August high of 1.1712. The pair broke 1.12 with authority, and the move below has the kind of follow-through that turns corrections into trends. Where the buyers went They didn’t go anywhere — they were simply […]
The third quarter of 2026 is in the books, and the scoreboard is unambiguous: the US dollar beat everything. Look at the numbers. The Federal Reserve’s own H.10 data shows the euro buying just 1.1259 dollars as of October 2 — down from 1.1367 a week earlier and miles below the 1.17 handle where it […]