EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1404, and the valuation crowd is getting loud. On purchasing-power parity, the euro is historically cheap. On fair-value models, it’s 8–10% undervalued. So is 1.14 a generational buying opportunity? Maybe. But let’s be honest about what valuation does and doesn’t do. Valuation is a compass, not a clock Undervalued currencies […]
The first week of the second half looks a lot like the last week of the first: the dollar consolidating its June gains while the market decides whether the trend has one more leg in it. EUR/USD is parked at 1.1404, having spent a week oscillating between 1.1387 and 1.1463. USD/JPY at 161.88 is pressing […]
162.6. That’s where USD/JPY closed on Wednesday, and I had to double-check the screen because the last time we were here, the conversation was all about intervention. The pair has rallied almost without pause since mid-June, climbing from 159.6 to its highest level of 2026. The engine is the same one that’s driven every big […]
The second quarter closes today, and the headline numbers suggest a snoozer. Don’t be fooled. EUR/USD ends Q2 at 1.1438, down modestly from its late-March levels. USD/JPY closes near 161.45, up a few percent. GBP/USD at 1.3353 is roughly where it started April. On the surface: range-bound markets, nothing to see. But the quarter’s real […]
With June nearly closed, it’s a natural moment to zoom out and score the first half of 2026 in FX. The winners The US dollar, first and unambiguously. EUR/USD ends June near 1.1438, down from around 1.17 in early May and trending lower since spring. USD/JPY at 161.45 is up nearly 2 yen from where […]