Euro Breaks 1.14 as the September Selloff Deepens
1.1327. That’s where EUR/USD traded on Thursday — the lowest level since early 2025 — and the tone of this move is very different from the gentle fade we saw in May.
The pair has lost about 2.6% in two weeks, falling from 1.1596 at the start of September. It broke 1.15 without pausing, sliced through 1.14, and only found buyers in the mid-1.13s. When a major pair moves like that, it’s not retail flow. This is institutional repositioning, and it’s happening fast.
The growth story keeps deteriorating
The eurozone’s problem hasn’t changed, but the market’s patience has. Manufacturing across the bloc remains stuck in contraction, and the services side is losing momentum too. Meanwhile the US keeps posting resilient numbers. That combination — weak Europe, firm America — is the most reliable dollar-bull recipe there is.
China’s yuan has been another tell. USD/CNY has firmed toward 6.71, its strongest in years, and the euro tends to trade as a proxy for global growth sentiment alongside the Chinese currency. When CNY strengthens and EUR/USD falls together, it’s usually a genuine growth scare rather than a rates story.
Sterling gets dragged along
GBP/USD has fallen from 1.3515 to about 1.3210 this month, giving back a large chunk of that impressive August rally. The pound’s earlier strength was built on relative rates; with the dollar bid across the board, that foundation looks shakier by the day. The 1.3200 level is holding for now — but it’s been tested twice this week, and third tests of round numbers tend to break.
Levels and logic
For EUR/USD, the next support zone sits at 1.1250–1.1280, followed by the psychologically important 1.1000. On the topside, the broken 1.1500 level should now act as resistance on any bounce.
A counter-argument worth respecting: the euro is now historically cheap on purchasing-power metrics, and speculative positioning is heavily short. A squeeze back to 1.1500 wouldn’t be shocking. But squeezes are trades; trends are positions. Right now this is a trend.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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