Dollar Holds Firm as Euro Drifts Below 1.17 in Mid-May Trade
If you’ve been watching EUR/USD this week, you’ve seen the same thing I have: a slow, grinding fade. The pair opened the week near 1.1770 and has slipped to around 1.1660 by Thursday’s close — not a crash, just a steady drip of selling that tells you buyers are losing patience at these levels.
What the charts are saying
The move matters more for what it isn’t. There was no single headline driving it. Instead, the euro keeps running into offers above 1.1740, a level that capped prices twice already in May. Every failure at resistance invites the same question: who is left to buy? Right now, the honest answer seems to be “not many.”
Meanwhile the dollar is doing what it has done for most of 2026 — nothing spectacular, just enough. Against the yen, the greenback has climbed from 157.7 on Tuesday to roughly 158.4, a grind higher that has carried the pair to its firmest level since late April.
Sterling’s wobble deserves attention
The more interesting story may be the British pound, which took a sharp knock on Thursday, diving to a low near 1.3317 before clawing back to about 1.3390. Moves like that, on no obvious catalyst, usually mean one of two things: a large institutional order got filled, or someone in the market knows something the rest of us don’t. Watch GBP/USD closely over the next few sessions — if the dip buyers don’t show up around 1.3300, this could get ugly fast.
The week ahead
Positioning data has shown speculators fairly neutral on the dollar for weeks, which usually means room for a trend to develop once one side commits. With the euro failing at resistance and the yen softening, the path of least resistance still favors the greenback — at least until the data says otherwise.
As always, levels can and do break. If EUR/USD manages a daily close above 1.1780, this read goes out the window. Until then, respect the tape.
Disclaimer: This is market commentary, not investment advice. FX trading carries substantial risk of loss.
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