157.69. USD/JPY closed below 158 on Tuesday for the first time in two weeks, and the move has the carry community asking an uncomfortable question: is the patient recovering, or is this the quiet before the next episode? The case for healing The September shock — the crash to 152.90 that wiped out months of […]
Friday wrap, and it’s been a week worth remembering. USD/JPY closed at 156.20, down from 159.77 a week ago, after plumbing 154.06 intraday on Thursday. That’s the second major downside break in eight weeks, and the character of this one worries the carry community more than July’s did. July was a shock — violent, unexplained, […]
The yen’s comeback is no longer a one-week wonder. USD/JPY has fallen from 159.77 at the end of August to below 157 this week, touching 154.06 in Tuesday’s session. That’s a 570-pip drop in three days, and it makes August–September the first sustained yen rally since early 2024. The carry trade, rebuilt so carefully after […]
USD/JPY at 161 has made “the carry trade” the most cited and least understood phrase in finance. Let’s fix that in five minutes. The mechanics A carry trade borrows money where interest rates are low and invests it where rates are high. Japan’s rates sit near zero; America’s are meaningfully higher. So a fund borrows […]
The yen’s June reprieve lasted exactly two weeks. USD/JPY closed Monday at 162.51, up from 161.88 last week, with the pair touching 162.58 — the highest since the April spike. The sellers who showed up at the end of June have been absorbed, and the carry community has taken that as its cue to reload. […]