Friday wrap after a week that confirmed what the previous two suggested: this is a full-blown dollar move, and it isn’t finished. EUR/USD closed at 1.1378, down 100 pips. GBP/USD at 1.3229, down 160. USD/JPY at 157.46, recovering steadily from the Monday panic low. Three pairs, one direction. When the dollar moves like this — […]
The yen’s 700-pip round trip over five weeks isn’t just a G10 story. Some of the biggest spillover is landing in emerging markets, and it’s worth understanding the transmission channel because it runs in both directions. The carry triangle For years, the dominant EM trade has been a triangle: borrow yen cheaply, buy higher-yielding EM […]
September arrives with every major market extended, every central bank on deck, and a calendar loaded enough to move all of them. Here are the five things that matter most. 1. The Fed meeting The single biggest event. The market wants clarity on the first rate cut; the Fed wants optionality. The gap between those […]
Somewhat lost in all the yen drama, the British pound has been quietly having an excellent summer. GBP/USD touched 1.3675 on Wednesday, its highest level of 2026, before settling back around 1.3550. From the late-June low of 1.3143, that’s a rally of more than 4% in under two months. For a major currency pair, that’s […]
August has arrived, and the market is doing what it usually does this month: nothing, loudly. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1556, up marginally from last week’s close of 1.1544. USD/JPY at 157.89 has spent four sessions bouncing between 156.8 and 159.0 without conviction. GBP/USD at 1.3491 is exactly where it ended July. Three pairs, three […]