The second quarter closed on Tuesday. Here’s the cross-asset scoreboard, because the story it tells is more coherent than any single market’s narrative. The numbers Stocks: the S&P 500 ended June at 7,499, up about 1% for a choppy quarter that featured a record high in May (7,599), a June correction to 7,238, and a […]
Here’s a market oddity worth unpacking: this week, both gold (bouncing around 4,381) and the euro (at 1.146) fell against the dollar simultaneously — but gold’s bounce off the lows came while the dollar was still firm. Occasionally, everything falls together. What’s going on? The liquidation explanation When leveraged macro funds unwind crowded trades — […]
Gold’s dead-cat bounce is impressive — up nearly 6% from Wednesday’s low of 4,046 to Monday’s close of 4,352. But is it a bottom? The honest answer is that bottoms are only visible in hindsight, and June bounces in gold have a history of disappointing the first wave of dip-buyers. What we can do is […]
Gold’s decline to the low 4,100s has produced a familiar chorus: “the fundamentals are still bullish!” Maybe. But if you can’t tell the difference between a fundamental repricing and forced liquidation, you’re flying blind — so let’s walk through it. Sign one: who’s selling In a fundamental repricing, the sellers are long-term holders changing their […]
4,500 has fallen. Gold closed Tuesday at 4,467 — its lowest finish since October and a jarring sight for anyone who bought the metal this year as portfolio insurance. From the April peak of 4,918, bullion is now down 9.2%, and the decline is accelerating: June’s first three sessions alone have erased what May’s dip-buyers […]