Everyone trading USD/JPY right now is, in some sense, trading their view on the Bank of Japan. So let’s step back from the price action and look at what Japan’s data actually says. The case for patience Japan’s core inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target but is no longer accelerating. Wage growth — the […]
The yen’s comeback is no longer a one-week wonder. USD/JPY has fallen from 159.77 at the end of August to below 157 this week, touching 154.06 in Tuesday’s session. That’s a 570-pip drop in three days, and it makes August–September the first sustained yen rally since early 2024. The carry trade, rebuilt so carefully after […]
Three assets dominate every financial crisis: gold, the dollar, and the yen. Understanding how they interact — because they don’t move in lockstep the way beginners expect — is essential market literacy. The hierarchy of safety When genuine panic hits, the market sells everything liquid and buys the dollar first. It’s the world’s funding currency, […]
July will be remembered as the month the yen finally pushed back. USD/JPY ends the month at 157.58, down over 6 yen from Monday’s peak of 163.79 — a stunning reversal that wiped out eight weeks of carry-trade gains in four days. The euro, meanwhile, posts its best month since January: EUR/USD closes July at […]
It finally happened. After weeks of warnings in this column about crowded yen positioning, USD/JPY has reversed violently — from an intraweek high of 163.94 on Monday to a low of 155.26 by Friday, before settling at 157.58. That’s an 870-pip intraweek range, the largest since 2024, and it has obliterated a month of carry […]