Just when the carry community thought the worst was over, the yen delivered another lesson. USD/JPY spiked down to 152.90 on Monday — matching the July low to the pip — before rebounding to close the week at 153.42. The weekly range of 154.99 to 152.90 looks small only because it followed last week’s explosion. […]
The yen’s 700-pip round trip over five weeks isn’t just a G10 story. Some of the biggest spillover is landing in emerging markets, and it’s worth understanding the transmission channel because it runs in both directions. The carry triangle For years, the dominant EM trade has been a triangle: borrow yen cheaply, buy higher-yielding EM […]
The most remarkable market statistic of September so far isn’t in the FX market — it’s in the equity market’s refusal to care about it. While the yen careened through its second 600-pip shock of the quarter and the dollar ripped to new highs, the S&P 500 has spent the week calmly consolidating near 7,650 […]
Five hundred pips in four sessions. That’s what the yen just did to the dollar. USD/JPY plunged from 160.20 at the end of August to a low of 152.90 on Monday, the fastest decline in the pair since the market turbulence of 2024. It has since stabilized around 157.6, but the damage to the carry […]
Gold’s magnificent August is being unwound, fast. The metal has fallen from its late-August peak near 4,558 to a low of 4,143 this week, closing near 4,186 — a decline of more than 8% in seven sessions. The summer recovery, which had carried gold from 3,955 to within sight of the June breakdown at 4,578, […]