It happened again — and this time, the market can’t pretend it’s a one-off. USD/JPY crashed on Monday to a low of 152.90, exactly matching July’s panic bottom, before rebounding to the mid-154s. The speed of the move — roughly 600 pips from Friday’s levels at one point — marks the second violent yen surge […]
Sunday preview of a week that could set the tone for the rest of 2026. The Federal Reserve and the ECB both meet within four days of each other, bracketing the month’s most consequential data. Markets enter the stretch with the dollar near its highs, gold near 4,400, equities at records, and bitcoin at $78,000 […]
Weekend edition, for the crypto market that never sleeps. Bitcoin enters the weekend near $77,500 — flat for the week after August’s spectacular 25% rally. The consolidation just below $78,000 looks, so far, like a healthy pause rather than exhaustion: volume is down, volatility is compressed, and the futures market shows balanced positioning rather than […]
Friday wrap, and it’s been a week worth remembering. USD/JPY closed at 156.20, down from 159.77 a week ago, after plumbing 154.06 intraday on Thursday. That’s the second major downside break in eight weeks, and the character of this one worries the carry community more than July’s did. July was a shock — violent, unexplained, […]
Everyone trading USD/JPY right now is, in some sense, trading their view on the Bank of Japan. So let’s step back from the price action and look at what Japan’s data actually says. The case for patience Japan’s core inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target but is no longer accelerating. Wage growth — the […]