157.69. USD/JPY closed below 158 on Tuesday for the first time in two weeks, and the move has the carry community asking an uncomfortable question: is the patient recovering, or is this the quiet before the next episode? The case for healing The September shock — the crash to 152.90 that wiped out months of […]
USD/JPY is trading at 158.57, up gently for the week, and the surface is calm. Underneath, I’m not so sure. The calm before patterns After two violent episodes in three months — July’s crash from 164 and September’s plunge to 152.90 — the pair has spent two weeks in a tight 157.6–158.8 range. Implied volatility […]
Just when the carry community thought the worst was over, the yen delivered another lesson. USD/JPY spiked down to 152.90 on Monday — matching the July low to the pip — before rebounding to close the week at 153.42. The weekly range of 154.99 to 152.90 looks small only because it followed last week’s explosion. […]
The yen’s 700-pip round trip over five weeks isn’t just a G10 story. Some of the biggest spillover is landing in emerging markets, and it’s worth understanding the transmission channel because it runs in both directions. The carry triangle For years, the dominant EM trade has been a triangle: borrow yen cheaply, buy higher-yielding EM […]
Five hundred pips in four sessions. That’s what the yen just did to the dollar. USD/JPY plunged from 160.20 at the end of August to a low of 152.90 on Monday, the fastest decline in the pair since the market turbulence of 2024. It has since stabilized around 157.6, but the damage to the carry […]