It happened again — and this time, the market can’t pretend it’s a one-off. USD/JPY crashed on Monday to a low of 152.90, exactly matching July’s panic bottom, before rebounding to the mid-154s. The speed of the move — roughly 600 pips from Friday’s levels at one point — marks the second violent yen surge […]
Friday wrap, and it’s been a week worth remembering. USD/JPY closed at 156.20, down from 159.77 a week ago, after plumbing 154.06 intraday on Thursday. That’s the second major downside break in eight weeks, and the character of this one worries the carry community more than July’s did. July was a shock — violent, unexplained, […]
Everyone trading USD/JPY right now is, in some sense, trading their view on the Bank of Japan. So let’s step back from the price action and look at what Japan’s data actually says. The case for patience Japan’s core inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target but is no longer accelerating. Wage growth — the […]
The yen’s comeback is no longer a one-week wonder. USD/JPY has fallen from 159.77 at the end of August to below 157 this week, touching 154.06 in Tuesday’s session. That’s a 570-pip drop in three days, and it makes August–September the first sustained yen rally since early 2024. The carry trade, rebuilt so carefully after […]
July will be remembered as the month the yen finally pushed back. USD/JPY ends the month at 157.58, down over 6 yen from Monday’s peak of 163.79 — a stunning reversal that wiped out eight weeks of carry-trade gains in four days. The euro, meanwhile, posts its best month since January: EUR/USD closes July at […]